Chen Shui-bian was narrowly
re-elected to another term as president of Taiwan in August, 2004. The
dangerous confrontation that loomed with China over the election and
referendum for independence was only temporarily abated.
It is pure fantasy on the part of
those who imagine that by cleverly "re-framing" the bellicose
rhetoric that China periodically unleashes, stability will be maintained
in the Asia region (see Taiwan Tensions: Avoiding a War With China, WSJ,
p.A15, May 24, 2004). The Asian editor of the WSJ appeases the pro-China
lobby in the State Department, when he suggests that China's aspirations
to control international air and sea lanes in the South China Sea have
in any way diminished.
The U.S. is pledged to defend
Taiwan against China by the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act but most
Americans don't realize the U.S. is ill-prepared to defend Taiwan
against the 600 Chinese ballistic missiles now pointed at Taiwan.
The Aegis High-Tier ballistic
missile defense being developed by the U.S. is not expected to be
operational before 2013, if then. In the interim, the U.S. could not
only fail to prevent China from invading Taiwan but lose access to the
critical choke points that lie along the energy corridor from the
Mediterranean, Middle East and Caspian areas to the South China Sea.
The only thing that prevents China
invading Taiwan is Bush's clear, unambiguous statement on April 15, 2001
to both sides of the Taiwan Strait that the U.S. will not allow
reunification by force of arms and does not want Taiwan to mess with the
status quo. This was a clear departure from decades of living under a
policy of "strategic ambiguity."
Recently, China has ratcheted-up
its hostile rhetoric toward Taiwan. The reason is that when the
presidential opponent, John Kerry, was questioned about foreign policy
including Taiwan and Iraq, he rejects war and states if he is elected he
will return to a policy of ambiguity because he argues, along with his
running mate John Edwards and Senator Joe Biden, that it is better to be
intentionally vague about going to war because "... any situation
which results in the use of force is unlikely to be black or
white...". This language of a true anti-war protestor encourages
China to increase pressure on Taiwan and the U.S. By rejecting Bush's
clear unambiguous policy, Kerry repeats the same rhetoric of Secretary
of State Dean Rusk in the Truman administration that led the U.S. into
the Korean War with China.
Trivializing Taiwan's
determination to prepare adequate defenses against China's unceasing
threats or its continuing efforts to distance itself from the threat of
submitting to China's dictatorship will not encourage other players in
the neighborhood from being bullied. Hong Kong's progress towards
representative elections and human rights have been severely repressed
and haven't gone unnoticed by the Taiwanese people and other freedom
loving Chinese outside of China. The Bush administration or any other
administration that follows will be sorely tested if a key democracy is
invaded and allowed to fall.
The WSJ reported on August 18,
2004 that China, after threatening Taiwan's businessmen who supported
Chen Shui-bian's re-election as president, denied them visas to travel
to Hong Kong.
A certain euphoria prevails
amongst many Americans in the business community who turn a blind eye to
China's repressive actions against its neighbors because in the short
run China's trade and growth supports the world economy. This is a
transient phenomenon which in the long run will be replaced by harsh
realities as China competes for scarce energy resources and its rigid
fascist leadership's inability to become a cooperative player on the
world stage becomes more apparent. China's experiment with capitalism
and free trade is on a collision course with its fascist ideology and
its antiquated state controlled enterprises and banking system.
China can claim the fastest
growing economy in the world, but with that claim comes two sets of
challenges that create social, political and economic turmoil and
tension within China as well as threatens global stability. One set of
challenges has to do with individual rights and political freedom. The
other set of challenges has to do with managing the transition from a
centrally-planned state economy to capitalizing and managing free
markets. The slightest hiccup with either set of challenges has dire
implications for the rest of the global community.
